Important!!!
I want to give the credit to my teacher for explaining the Monty Hall Problem to me. If I have any error on that, please tell me immediately! I am not really good at explaining these things lol

"I~found~you~"

Standing in front of him was a middle-aged man in a gray jumpsuit, his face slick with oil and sweat, eyes gleaming with madness. His hair was a wild mess, a clump of ashen-white like cotton, and his face was as pale as wax. His lips twisted into a near-ecstatic grin. He wore rubber gloves on both hands.

"So... you actually found this place, boy..."

His voice slithered like a snake, thin and eerie. "I thought you were just a nosy little brat who liked breaking rules. Turns out you're here to sabotage my art piece!!"

He looked like a deranged scientist out of a horror film. With a mouth full of yellow teeth, he burst out laughing and shut the door.

Conan took half a step back, eyes locked on the man's gloved hands and the workstation behind him, already calculating possible escape routes.

"These explosives... You made them. You're with the Organization, aren't you?" Conan's voice was calm, but his pulse quickened.

The man grinned. "Oh? A little boy who knows secrets he shouldn't? Didn't your mama teach you manners? You don't waltz into someone's house and start asking questions. How rude!"

"You are with the Organization." Conan discreetly adjusted his wristwatch behind his back.

"You sure know a lot for a kid... But I'm not really into killing and fighting." The man walked over, spreading his arms wide.

"Look at these beauties! My creations! Boy, look at my masterpieces! Each of them, so damn pretty! Just one push of a button—don't let the size fool you. This tiny box can blow everything within thirty meters into a red mist."

Conan kept his eyes on him. "So you've been hiding up here in the zoo's mountain, making bombs, and no one noticed? You work here or something?"

"I'm not the one setting them off or testing them. I'm just a researcher... Isn't it incredible? These tangled wires, they're like life lines, all intertwined... and just one spark can set them ablaze. It's fate!"

"Who's your contact in the Organization? Gin? Vermouth?" Conan edged backward again.

"Gin? Vermouth?" The man tapped his head. "I don't know who those are. But you're too young to be messing with alcohol anyway. It'll rot your brain."

"Stop lying... The Organization, is it Vermouth?"

Before the words left his mouth, Conan acted. He flipped open his wristwatch and fired a tranquilizer dart at the man's neck. But the man had been ready. He twisted aside like a snake and grabbed a wrench off the table, swinging it at Conan.

Conan rolled away, a chair crashing into the wall.

"You're not leaving! You came in, now you STAY!" the man shrieked, grabbing a coil of wires and advancing.

"If you don't know them, then tell me this—where did you get the funds and equipment to set up this lab?" Conan retreated to a corner but kept questioning.

"Hahahaha... Why does a dead man need to know so much? Don't you see? If you really want something, the universe conspires to help you get it! I love making bombs! Love the beauty of the explosion! And the world sent messengers to help me fulfill my dream!"

Conan couldn't attack recklessly. He dodged the incoming tools and dashed toward the door again. The man gave chase, unnervingly fast.

"You all called me crazy! But I am the only sane one! I create order with my own hands, and you try to stop me?!"

Conan ran past the workstation, grabbed a stack of notes and maps, scanned the circled locations, burned them into memory, and turned toward the exit. But the man hurled the wrench.

It missed Conan but slammed into the electrical box on the wall, sending sparks flying. Another thrown knife struck a lighting cable, cutting it clean. The basement lights flickered and dimmed.

In the momentary darkness, Conan lost his bearings. The man lunged, grabbing Conan's backpack and trying to drag him back to the workstation.

"Where do you think you're going?! I won't let you destroy my babies!"

"Let go!" Conan rammed back with all his strength and broke free. In the same motion, he pulled out a soccer ball from his belt and kicked it straight into the man's face.

Boom! A dull thud echoed, and white smoke filled the sealed room.

But the man only laughed more maniacally. He slashed the ball with a screwdriver. "None of you understand me! Only they do! They helped me succeed! Hahaha! They admire my art! I was just another nobody, but..."

Conan reached the door and tried the handle, only to find it locked from both sides. Without the correct code, it wouldn't budge.

Which meant—the door had been deliberately left open for him. He had walked right into a trap.

The man inched forward, step by step. His smile faltered for the briefest moment—then he lunged.

Conan reacted instantly, rolling to the right, just barely avoiding the iron pipe that whistled past his head. It grazed a concrete pillar, sending a jolt of pain through his side. He staggered up, cornered, with nowhere to run. He hadn't even had the chance to kick his signature soccer ball when his pocket vibrated violently—distracting him just long enough.

The man took his chance and swung the pipe at the back of Conan's head.

"You... don't..."

Conan's vision blurred. He could only just make out the man crouching, the clatter of the steel pipe hitting the ground echoing sharply.

"But now, I believe this is my calling—my purpose from the moment I was born: to bring chaos and fear into peace."

He picked up the still-vibrating phone. A frantic voice poured out:

"Edogawa, where are you? Ishikawa Kaito and the kids snuck into the haunted house—are you with them? Edogawa? Damn it—what's with your signal? The teacher says we need to gather—why aren't you out yet?"

"Tsk, tsk... You kids are more trouble than you're worth. What is it with children these days? Told to go east, and you all insist on going west... Never listen to adults. Your friends... I heard there was a group of elementary schoolers on a field trip today. Let's see... You look like a first or second grader, maybe? What are you learning in math these days?"

He hung up on Haibara Ai.

"Cough... Damn you... Don't... you dare..."

The searing pain kept Conan from finishing a sentence. The man simply grinned, humming a childish tune under his breath. He picked up a length of rope and bound Conan tightly, then crouched to open a safe. From it, he selected his favorite: a custom-made trap box loaded with explosives.

Looking down at the barely conscious Conan, he chuckled:

"Pray your little friends aren't as smart as you. If they get spooked and run back at the first scream, I might just let them go. But let's see how they fare. I do hope they enjoy the little 'gift' I've prepared."

________________

"Kudo! Kudo! Damn it—Edogawa, where the hell are you?!"

Haibara Ai had tried repeatedly to reach Conan, but with no success. Her unease was mounting fast. His phone was out of signal, possibly shut off. Only the detective badge remained. She lowered it, turned to the children ahead and called out:

"Stop right there! We shouldn't move recklessly!"

"We finally made it to the haunted house, and now the staff won't let us in! What the hell? We already found Ishikawa Kaito—why can't we go inside now?" Genta fumed. The kids were, like Conan once had been, stopped by the invisible gate of age.

"Any contact with Edogawa?" asked Kaito, his voice edged with tension. He had planned to sneak in unnoticed, following the Meitantei's trail, hoping for clues on the Organization. But he had ended up getting blocked in line, only to run into allies looking for him.

"No luck," Haibara Ai shook her head. "I'll try again. Edogawa!"

"Cough... Haibara?"

She glanced toward Kaito, then quickly stepped several meters away. Making sure none of the children could overhear, she whispered:

"What happened to you?"

"I'm fine... Haibara... truthfully, not great. I was attacked."

"Where are you? I'm coming to find you." Haibara's urgency pierced through, but Conan cut her off:

"No. Go to the teachers and the police. I'm still inside the haunted house—or more accurately, beneath it. There's a workshop here... for manufacturing explosives. Don't let the kids come down here."

"Of course... I..."

She peeked out, confirming the Detective Boys were still nearby—and her face paled.

"No... it can't be..."

"Haibara?" Conan's voice tightened. He shifted painfully on the ground, heart clenching.

"Don't let them go down there! The attacker is still inside the haunted house—he's one of the staff."

Haibara didn't understand why the staff at the entrance had suddenly vanished, but Ayumi's hairband had disappeared into the dark.

That meant the others had already followed. Just as she was about to sprint after them, a thick arm barred her path.

"Little miss, this ride isn't for children. Go enjoy the merry-go-round or the spinning teacups. Come back when you're older."

"But... my friends just went down there."

No matter how she begged, the staff wouldn't budge. He raised his walkie-talkie:

"Yes, sir. The issue is resolved. All good here. Sorry, little miss, rules are rules. If you get into trouble down there, I'll be the one to pay for it."

In the shadows, a quiet smile bloomed.

Kaito tossed the walkie-talkie into a pile of creepy dolls. With Mitsuhiko and Ayumi in tow, he quickly slipped out of the first room.

Fortunately, shrinking hadn't affected his voice-mimicry skills. It had been child's play to impersonate a superior and redirect the front desk staff. He was the one who mimicked and let Conan get inside the haunted house in the first place, and now Meitantei was in danger, Kaito wouldn't trust teachers or police enough to rescue Meitantei in time. Getting inside had been easy. What he didn't expect was the tail of miniature sidekicks clinging to his heels.

"Why are you down here?! Get back upstairs!" Kaito hissed.

"Why do you sound so much like Conan?! And who even are you to boss me around?!" Genta snapped, pulling a spooky face as he wandered over to a surgical table. He leaned casually against the cold metal and yanked back the white sheet with one hand,"I'm braver than you are. If there's danger, with me around, you don't need to be afraid at all..."

And just then___

"AAAAAAAHHHHH!!! WHAT THE HELL IS THAT?!"

The bed shook violently in an instant. A skeletal hand shot out from beneath the white sheet and brushed against Genta's face, sending him crashing down onto the floor with a loud thud. Ayumi and Mitsuhiko, though standing farther away, were both startled by the sudden burst of laughter and eerie sound effects.

"Waaaah!!! Run!"

The children stumbled forward a few steps, sensing that the surrounding darkness was now even more oppressive than before. Genta remained in the lead, followed by Mitsuhiko. Ayumi, frightened, darted her gaze around the shadows, terrified something might leap out from a corner. When she looked up, she noticed a mask of a human face stuck to the ceiling of the corridor, nearly paralyzing her with fear.

"What kind of awful place is this?"

"It's a haunted house...Obviously" Kaito replied with a heavy sigh.

The next room was filled with mannequins—plastic limbs, wigs, rubber-made "remains" casually discarded and piled up. Ayumi clung tightly to Kaito's hand before daring to take another step.

"K-Kaito.. Aren't you scared at all? What if... something actually jumps out at us?"

"Don't worry, I'll protect you." Genta's voice lacked the confidence it had earlier. Even though he was trembling inside, he forced himself to act brave. He reached out and tapped one of the mannequins dressed in a sky-blue silk dress. "See? Nothing. Ayumi, you're overthinking."

"Ge-Ge-Genta..." Ayumi's eyes widened, her voice faltering as she pointed behind him. "That mannequin... behind you..."

Genta turned around, his face going pale. "No way... was she always facing my direction? Haha... Mannequins can't move on their own, right? It's not like there's someone inside..."

No sooner had he spoken than a trapdoor on the ceiling opened with a loud clatter. A skull dropped from above, landing nose-to-nose with Genta, creaking as it swung. Half of its face was exposed bone, the other half rotted flesh, two bulbous eyes fixed directly on them—until one finally popped out of its socket.

"AAAAAAHHHH!!! I wanna go home to my mom!"
"What kind of haunted house is this?! I'm done!"

Screaming wildly, Mitsuhiko, Ayumi, and Genta clung together and tried to flee. But in the pitch-black maze, they unknowingly ran even deeper inside. The farther they went, the more their fear escalated. Somewhere along the way, Kaito had moved from the back of the group to the very front.

"It's so dark... I can't see anything..." Mitsuhiko whispered, clutching Kaito's right shoulder with one hand, and Genta's hand with the other. Genta cowered behind Kaito, occasionally stepping on Ayumi's feet.

"That thing back there—it was fake, right?"

This was the tenth time Genta asked. Kaito sighed. "Yes, fake. Stop doubting it, will you? If it were real, eyeballs wouldn't fall out like that."

"But it looked so real," Ayumi murmured.

"Not even close," Kaito muttered. He knew that no matter what he said now, the kids wouldn't believe him. If he walked too slowly, they'd whimper. If he walked too fast, they'd yank him back.

"You're walking too fast," Genta whined, tugging at Kaito's shirt. "S-Slow down. It's dangerous. It's spooky!"

"You all do know this is just a haunted house, right? All fake!", Kaito turned to face them. The kids instinctively turned with him—none of them wanted to be the one walking in front.

"What if a ghost jumps out of the shadows?"

"Then it'll be a person, not a ghost. Or maybe a robot." Kaito pointed toward an EXIT sign. "Look—we're nearly out. Just one more room. Don't even think about going back. It's faster to push forward than to turn around. Unless you want another skeleton surprise."

"You go first, but don't rush!" Genta grumbled.
Ayumi glanced nervously behind them. "Are you sure nothing will jump out at us from the back?"

"Maybe we should take turns watching behind us?" Mitsuhiko suggested.

And so the children formed an odd little formation: a slow-moving ring with Kaito at the center, the other three taking turns rotating positions and watching all directions like a paranoid carousel.

"Isn't it weird, though?" Mitsuhiko finally asked. "Why hasn't any other visitor come down here yet?"

Kaito nodded. He had noticed from the start—ever since they passed that emergency exit, the terrain shifted subtly. Though unspoken, he knew they were no longer in the real haunted house. Someone had tampered with the layout—moved walls, rerouted corridors.

But there was no turning back now. When he glanced behind him, the hallway they'd come from had become a solid wall.

"You guys feel like this place is... off?"

"You're just realizing that, Mitsuhiko?" Genta snapped.

"Oi__You're the one who insisted on coming down here," Mitsuhiko retorted. "Ha, so now it's all my fault?"

"Enough! You want everyone to hear us arguing?" Kaito cut in. "Look—is that a kitchen? There's someone in there."

It was an eerily quiet kitchen. The curtains were drawn, and the only light came through stained glass on the wall—casting an unnatural blend of burnt orange and deep amber that bathed the room like a surreal oil painting. Warm, yes—but unsettling.

Kaito instinctively moved his arm in front of Ayumi. Everything in the kitchen was spotless. Yet the air was thick with the metallic scent of blood and a sickly sweetness, as if something had just been baked—but something that shouldn't have been.

At the counter stood an elderly woman in a floral apron. Her back was bent, silver-gray hair neatly coiled atop her head. She methodically sliced fruit on the table, her knife striking the cutting board with crisp, rhythmic precision.

"Ah! A person! Let's go ask for help!"

Upon seeing another human, Ayumi immediately released Genta and Kaito's hands and sprinted forward. Kaito barely managed to shout after her.

"Ayumi—wait! Don't go near her!"

...

Too late.

"Grandma?" Ayumi called out tentatively. The old woman didn't respond, only kept chopping, a faint, twisted smile playing on her lips. It wasn't kind—more like a grotesque twitch, as if her mouth were being tugged up by invisible fishing lines. Ayumi instinctively stepped back.

The next second, that half-smiling mouth suddenly slackened. A thick, bright red ooze gushed from her dislocated jaw, spilling down like syrup. Inside it, tiny red-lit bulbs blinked furiously, emitting a shrill laugh.

"Gya gya gya gya____Hahaha! Someone's come knocking!"

Ayumi's knees gave out, and she collapsed into the fake blood pooling on the floor. "Aaaaaahhhh!!!!"

Kuroba Kaito rushed over. "Don't be scared! It's just a robot!"

More paint and artificial blood spewed out, flooding the floor. Kaito grabbed Ayumi and pulled her to her feet. "Quick! That way!"

Genta, somehow having found a spatula, tossed it to Kaito. Without hesitation, Kaito leapt onto the couch and slammed the spatula down on the robot's head.

"Sss... sss... sss..."—the laughter suddenly sharpened, getting higher and faster. The robot raised its long kitchen knife, still slick with a crimson, glistening substance. Under the warm light, it looked like molasses—thick and turning black.

Its voice grated like rusty shears, squeezing words through clenched teeth. "Today... is meat-curing day." It giggled and muttered, "Children mustn't run... the meat won't cure evenly... Uneven meat tastes bad... Not tasty..."

It toppled to the ground, its head twisted at a grotesque angle, but didn't detach. Wires were exposed, sparking. Kaito yanked Ayumi along, weaving past the dining table and kitchen counter.

"Quick! Mitsuhiko! Genta! See if there's a switch behind that wall!" Kaito commanded, then swung hard at the robot's ankle. The robot collapsed, singing in a low, eerie hum: "Little hands, little feet... snap snap... chopped into bits, into the soup..."

Its limbs started convulsing as it crawled toward them.

"Waaaaaah!!!" Ayumi shrieked. Thankfully, Kaito pulled her aside, just avoiding the blade. Though it was plastic, it was still sharp. Ayumi dodged the strike, but tripped over her own feet and fell. The robot, hyena-like, scrambled toward her.

"Waaaah!!! Kaito!Ahh___Save me!!!"

There was no way Kuroba Kaito would let that thing harm any of the kids. He flipped with precision, perched on the back of the sofa, and shouted deliberately, "Wahhh!"

Pretending to lose his balance, he tumbled down—only to twist mid-air. Beneath the shadows where no one could see, he drove a prepped Swiss knife directly into the robot's power core.

"Cut—cut into little pieces... Cuuuuuuuttttt_____"

Ayumi held her breath in terror. The knife swung down, and a millisecond before it struck her chest, the robot lost balance and collapsed backward. Even as its systems shut down, it kept muttering, "Cut__cut__cut into little pieces."

Silence fell. Ayumi panted on the floor. Before the kids could even catch their breath, applause rang out from the darkness.

Clap, clap, clap____

"This is why I don't like kids."

Ayumi scrambled behind Genta. Genta and Mitsuhiko huddled behind Kaito. A pair of glossy black boots stepped out of the shadows, bathed in a crimson glow. The boys clutched Kaito so tightly he nearly yelped.

"Kids always ruin things. No appreciation for art."

"Who are you?!" Genta asked.

A laugh echoed from the shadow. "Who I am doesn't matter. Who you are doesn't matter to me either. Brats... You actually broke my robot."

"She clearly tried to kill Ayumi—what else were we supposed to do? We just came down here to find our friend." Mitsuhiko added, "And I'm sure you know where he is!"

The man chuckled. "That's right. But... unfortunately, you'll be seeing him sooner than expected." As he spoke, he wheeled out a serving cart and took three steps back, pressing a wall sconce. The room rumbled. Suddenly, an iron gate rose from the floor, splitting the kitchen in half. Kaito and the kids were now trapped inside the cage.

With a smug smile, the man moved to a shadowy corner by the sink. "Weren't you curious where your friend went? Why don't you meet him now—this might be your last chance."

He kicked through the wall—but to his surprise, the hidden chamber was empty.

"Oh? Gone?"

Looking closer, he noticed the exhaust vent had been pried open. Someone must have rescued Conan from the outside. Mitsuhiko sighed in relief. "Phew! Looks like Haibara Ai found a way in through the drainage system and got Conan out!"

The man wrinkled his nose, clearly displeased that the highlight of his little show was missing.

"No matter. I still have a gift for all of you." He reached through the iron bars and yanked the cloth off the serving cart.

Kaito stretched out an arm, signaling everyone to back away again. Mitsuhiko's eyes widened. "Is that... bomb?!"

"Hahahaha, that's right! Little brats, barging into my house and wrecking my masterpiece—you'll have to pay. But I'm not unreasonable. You're elementary school kids, right? Then let's play a simple game. Here are three boxes. Each has a button. Two of the boxes contain red buttons. If you pick one with a red button... I'll press it—and boom! The explosives will go off. This place? Reinforced concrete. You won't escape."

"And the third?" Ayumi asked.

"The lucky charm—blue button. If you pick that one, I'll give you the box. After five minutes, I'll ride off on my bike. The box will open automatically. Push the button, and the iron gate will lower. If you pick the wrong one, then after 5 minutes, it will blow you all up into the sky."

"How do we know you're not lying?" Genta demanded.

The man snickered. "Right now, trust is all you've got, isn't it?"

"So this is the game?" Mitsuhiko narrowed his eyes. Something about it felt too easy—not because the odds were good, but because the whole setup seemed... too straightforward.

"Oh no no no, to spice things up, I've added a little twist." The man licked his lips. "I'll give you a choice—a chance to change everything. First, you pick one box. Then, I'll open one of the boxes containing a red button. If you picked the blue box, I'll open one of the red ones. If you picked a red one, I'll open the other red one. Then you decide—do you want to switch or stay?"

Genta furrowed his brows and muttered, "What does this have to do with math?"

"We haven't learned this yet, but if you think of it in terms of probability, the chance that the blue button is in one of the three boxes is one-third," said Mitsuhiko. "But... if we pick the right one at first and get tricked into switching, we're doomed."

"No matter what, we've got to choose one," Ayumi said, sweating profusely. She bit her pale lips in anxiety. To her, the three boxes looked exactly the same. There was no superpower that could help her see through identical wooden boxes.

A pure game of probability?

"Just so you know, I do know which box has the blue button."

Kaito's gaze turned icy. "The second box from your left."

Kuroba Kaito wasn't confident at all. He had expected the man to give something away with his expression when the box was picked, but he didn't. His face remained one of gleeful excitement.

"Alright then... ta-dah! This is one of the red buttons. Well, kids... wanna switch? This is a pure game of probability and luck..."

"He's totally trying to mess with us!" Ayumi cried. "What should we do? Kaito! Mitsuhiko! Genta!"

The man turned around, purposely hiding his expression. Kaito gripped the iron bars tightly with both hands,"Damn... you crazy bastard."

"Tick-tock, tick-tock... Time's running out, kids... better choose soon..." the man whistled with a sly smile.

"Hurry! Come on, we're running out of time!" Ayumi screamed under the pressure. "Pick one already!!!"

"But which one?! I don't want to die today! I still want to eat drumsticks and egg tarts! A thousand bowls of udon! No! Switch! Let's switch already!"

"Don't switch! He's doing this on purpose to confuse us!"

Mitsuhiko frowned. "But what if we picked the right one from the start?"

"Should we flip a coin?" Ayumi was about to cry. Like Mitsuhiko said, it was all one-third chance anyway. So... what now?

In the midst of chaos, only one remained chillingly calm. Kuroba Kaito gripped the iron bars, cold sweat trickling down along the line of his collarbone.

____ Now's not the time to play dumb.

"Kids. Not to rush you, but hey—I've gotta bounce too, you know?..........Well, little ones? Now there are two choices left. Wanna switch? Don't worry—Lady Luck will smile upon you. Go ahead, switch. Or, stick with your original pick. Up to you."

Kuroba Kaito sneered. "I never believed in Lady Luck... I believe in probability. Only a fool would ignore the 2/3 chance."

Kaito's voice was steely. "We switch."

That powerful voice sliced through the noise like a blade. All the kids froze. The man slowly stood up, like a spider rising from the darkness, baring two rows of gleaming teeth.

The man grinned and was just about to press the button—when suddenly a flash of light tore through the air like divine wrath, splitting the wooden block above his head in half. His grin was instantly wiped off his face.

BANG____

CLANG-CRASH____

A soccer ball—like a meteor from the heavens—smashed into the ticking bomb, rebounding off the walls and soaring into the air. The man choked and cursed, crawling out from the broken planks, stunned, eyes wide open as a blinding light from above nearly knocked him unconscious.

The rooftop had been blown open. A gaping hole revealed a row of blue-uniformed police officers. Mitsuhiko and Ayumi, seeing the two figures standing in front, immediately cried out with joy.

"Conan! Haibara Ai! It's really you!!!"

__________________________________________________________

On the ride back, the tour bus was half asleep, half alive. Some kids were passed out in their seats, while others still had too much energy, huddled in the back playing cards. Genta, never able to resist hunger, stuffed every snack he could find into his stomach. Sitting behind Conan and Kaito, he reached through the seat gap with a bag of chips.

"Kaito. Want some chips?"

Kaito turned. "No thanks. I'm gonna take a nap."

Genta didn't move. Ever the loyal friend, he added, "Ishikawa Kaito, you're officially one of us now. Forgot to mention—I'm the current team captain. Since you've joined the Detective Boys, you're a detective now. If you ever get into trouble—bullies, homework, whatever—we've got your back."

Kaito gave a soft smile, heavy eyelids dragging him down. He took off his jacket, leaned against the window, and closed his eyes. "I'm sleeping. Don't bug me..."

By Conan's side, Kaito tugged his jacket over his head like a shrimp curling into its shell, dozing off in the window seat.

"Geez, now Kaito, Ayumi, and Haibara are all asleep. Whatever we play with just the three of us is gonna be boring. Let's not play poker. I brought UNO from home—Conan, wanna play?" Genta asked eagerly, pulling out a card deck.

Mitsuhiko frowned. "You're still in the mood to play? Or did you already forget what just happened the moment you finished those chips?"

"Who would forget that!?" Genta protested. "It was too terrifying, that's exactly why we needed to distract ourselves with a game! That creepy old man was seriously weird. I hope the police took him in for proper interrogation. Who just randomly builds a bomb and hides underground? Just to scare a bunch of kids!?"

"His name was Kishida Saburo."

Normal kids wouldn't be crawling through the sewers in the first place... Kishida probably never imagined that while hiding underground building explosives for the Organization, he'd one day get discovered by a bunch of kids... Conan shuffled the cards and asked, "Speaking of which... what exactly did Kishida say to you?"

"Mostly it was just him talking... total lunatic, kept bragging about his 'treasury babies.' And then he said something totally crazy. But considering he wasn't right in the head to begin with, it wasn't exactly shocking," Mitsuhiko replied.

"What was it?" Conan asked.

"At the end, he said he wanted to play a game with us. If we answered correctly, the iron door would open and we could go free. If we got it wrong... the bombs underground would go off."

"I know that part," Conan pushed everyone's cards forward. "What clue did he give you?"

"There were three boxes, each with a button. Two red buttons that would detonate the bomb, and one blue button that would open the iron door. He told us to choose a number and tell him. No matter what we picked, he wouldn't say if it was right or wrong. Then he would open one of the other boxes to show a red button. " He said.

"Then?"

"So after our choice, the remaining two would be one blue and one red, or both red. Then he asked if we wanted to switch our choice. He said, 'So, kids? You've got two options now. Wanna switch? Don't worry, Lady Luck is watching over you. Go ahead and switch, or stick to your answer. Your call.'" Mitsuhiko explained.

Genta nodded: "That was just reverse psychology, right? I thought he only said that because we picked the right one, trying to mess with us. But we were so scared that we couldn't say anything... the only one who managed to speak was Ishikawa Kaito, and that was probably because he was too slow to realize we should be terrified."

"Genta!" Mitsuhiko glared at him. Genta grumbled, "Hey! What's the big deal? He's asleep, can't hear us anyway."

"So your first choice was the right one?" Conan asked.

Mitsuhiko shook his head. "No... Kaito switched. And he said something really strange too: 'I never believed in any Lady Luck... I trust probability more. Only an idiot would not go with the 2/3 chance.'"

"Haha, he is stupid!" Genta laughed. "It's obviously 1/3! Three boxes, one blue button. Doesn't matter if that old man opens one after we choose—doesn't change the odds. When we picked, the probabilities were already set. Kaito just got lucky..."

"No, switching actually gives you a 2/3 chance of hitting the blue button," Conan interrupted.

Genta squinted, "Why would it be 2/3? Conan, are you spending too much time around Kaito? Starting to lose your mind?"

"...This is a well-known probability puzzle called the Monty Hall Problem. Imagine this: there are three doors. Behind two of them are goats, and behind the third is a sports car. If the contestant picks the right door, they get to drive home in that car..."

"Huh?" Genta scowled. "A car? Who wants that ? Goats can at least be made into skewers. What am I supposed to do with a car? Rip the metal off and turn it into a grill?"

".........Fine. Behind two doors is never-ending homework. Behind one is an endless supply of fruit-and-cream cake. The teacher knows where the cake is, but we don't. At first, each door has a 1/3 chance of hiding the cake. Look here..." Conan pulled out a sheet of paper and drew a chart.

"If you list the three possible arrangements, you get: (Homework, Homework, Cake), (Homework, Cake, Homework), and (Cake, Homework, Homework). If you choose Door 1, there's a 1/3 chance the cake is behind it, and a 2/3 chance it's behind Door 2 or 3. Then the teacher, who knows where the cake is, opens a door revealing homework. Now, if you don't switch, you stick with the original 1/3 chance. But if you switch, let's see what happens... Suppose your first pick was correct and you switch, you lose and get homework. But if your first pick was wrong—which happens 2/3 of the time—then switching wins you the cake. And since there are two "wrong" doors..."

"Oh~ if the cake's behind Door 3, the teacher opens Door 2, and if we switch from Door 1 to 3, we get the cake. That's 1/3. If it's behind Door 2 and the teacher opens Door 3, switching also gets us the cake. Another 1/3... So adding them, it's 2/3?"

Mitsuhiko scratched his head. "It... kind of makes sense, I guess."

"If the teacher knows where the car is and always opens a goat door, then the chance of winning by not switching stays at 1/3. But switching gives a 2/3 chance. In other words, as long as you first picked the wrong door, switching always wins. And since picking wrong is a 2/3 chance, switching is the better strategy,"

Conan continued. "It involves permutations and expected value. Once you get to high school and understand more about probability..."

"Sure, sure, now Tantei-san's diving into high school math and statistics. Isn't that a bit much for us ordinary elementary schoolers?" Haibara Ai had woken up at some point, causing Conan to jump and wave it off awkwardly, "Ahahaha, Shinichi-niisan told me about it, I didn't really get it either."

"So it's out of our knowledge... again!..." Genta grumbled. "Alright, my turn to lead the round."

Conan chuckled sheepishly, then suddenly fell silent. "Wait a sec... you said... Ishikawa Kaito..."

"Huh? I figure Kaito just blurted that stuff out 'cause his brain was scrambled. Maybe he thought pressing the red button was the right answer," Genta happily tossed down his remaining cards. "Yes! I win! You guys keep playing, I'm off to grab another chocolate bar."

Conan laid down his cards. "I'm taking a break too, you guys go on."

He sat back down and slowly reached out to poke the cheek of the boy sleeping soundly beside him.

A kid who hadn't even fully grasped the concept of division... knew the solution to the Monty Hall problem.

Was that really just a damn luck?

Or maybe___

It was never just a pure luck.